The Ashes 2005

The last time I made a prediction I was proven to be horribly wrong. Only fools and idiots make predictions. Sometimes fortune tellers have a crack.

I am a fool and an idiot so will choose to make a prediction for the current Ashes series. The result will be either 4-0 or 4-1. Whatever the case, the Aussies will wipe the floor of the Poms.

Just watching the first test at Lords suggests the Poms are not even in the same ball park. While the English put up an admirable performance on the first day it didn't take long for the Aussies to hit back and show their class. Surely there was a hint when the Aussies could only muster 190 with the Poms follwing up with a meagre 155. One mate suggested that the Poms were in the box seat and would probably win on the third day or so. I listened to a somewhat reasoned argument and when I put down the phone thought to myself - 'what a load of bollocks!'

It has been amusing to say the least to watch the lead up to the real thing. Sure the Aussies were beaten by the Poms in 20/20 and a number of ODIs; they even were humiliated by Banglidesh along the way. So what?! We all know that 20/20 and ODIs are not real cricket. Anyone who says otherwise probably thinks the world is flat. The lead up games are but a distraction and delay to playing for what they really came to do.

I, like most people, am thrilled the Poms are somewhat competitive. They are even in 2nd place in the world test rankings which surprised me a bit. It is about time. Even though they have won their last five test series, they have been nothing short of woeful over the years. Dare I suggest their best will be a long way short of what's needed to topple the champs?

There is a massive gulf between the first placed team and the rest. The Kiwis had a crack and were dismissed out of hand. The Aussies have won 16 series straight. That's a long time to breed a successful and winning culture. Sure they have lost a series here and there but the vagaries of touring foreign lands will always throw up the odd poor result.

I am enjoying the dominance of the Aussies. People with short memories will have forgotten the forlorn years when we were pummelled regularly and how distressing and depressing it was to see the likes of the great Windies teams of the 80s, even the Pakis having a batting line up that appeared to go on forever and a bowling line up that ripped through all and sundry.

Getting back to the current series, it is raining in London as I type. That will be the only hope the Poms will have. I can't see much else saving them. If they do contradict me and perform better than anticipated, I say well done to them now. We'll see if I have to eat my words in the next few weeks.